On a trip to a Walmart in Ozark, Md., in early January, Laura Modrell was surprised to find shoppers “standing around gasping” in the grocery’s dairy section. As he approached, he saw that the cupboard, which usually housed stacks of egg cartons, was nearly empty.
“All the regular-sized cartons of eggs are practically gone,” Ms Modrell said. “I’ve heard some older people get really upset.”
Across the country, grocery store shoppers are facing empty shelves and higher prices for a traditionally cheap source of protein: eggs.
And it’s likely to get worse.
Volatile egg prices have been a part of the grocery shopping experience due in part to inflation, but also to an avian influenza, or bird flu, that reached the United States in 2022. that influenza, Caused, infected or killed by the H5N1 virus 136 million birds so far
But the outbreak has intensified recently. More than 30 million chickens – about 10 percent of the country’s egg-laying population – have been culled in the past three months to prevent the spread of the disease. It may take months for the supply of laying hens to return to normal levels of about 318 million, roughly one hen per person.
“This is the most devastating wave of bird flu outbreaks we’ve seen since it started three years ago,” said Caryn Rispoli, managing editor of Expanar Eggs, a firm that collects and tracks egg prices. “And at this point the farms that supply the retail sector are disproportionately affected and that leaves a big, gaping hole.”
Wholesale egg prices have gone up as the number of laying hens has dropped drastically. According to Expana, grocery stores and restaurants are now paying about $7 for a dozen eggs — a record level, up from $2.25 last fall.
While consumers have noticed higher egg prices — the cost of eggs to consumers is 37 percent higher than a year ago — they have yet to feel the full impact of the shortage. Grocery stores typically price products like milk and eggs as “loss leaders,” meaning they are sold at a lower price than the wholesale price the stores charge to entice customers into the store.
Karen Meletta, a spokeswoman for WakeFern, a retailer-owned supermarket cooperative whose stores include ShopRite and Gourmet Garage, said in an emailed statement that grocers have tried to maintain egg prices, but it’s a “difficult thing to balance, especially given these ongoing outbreaks.” Market Volatility and Uncertainty.”
Across the country, shoppers are finding empty shelves or limited on how many cartons they can buy. This can cause panic and buyers may hoard eggs for fear they won’t be able to find them later.
Before Thanksgiving, Sara Joy Hess, owner of Counterspace, Baton Rouge, La. was paying less than $2 for a dozen eggs, which she needs for chocolate chip cookies, quiches and other items, she said. But then prices started to rise rapidly. After his distributor quoted a price of $7.86 for a dozen eggs, he drove to a nearby Sam’s Club, where he bought eggs for $3.86 a dozen.
“I’m limited at Sam’s Club in how many cases of eggs I can buy, so I have to make multiple trips,” Ms. Hayes said. “But at this point it seems like a steal of a deal, so I’ll do it.”
During the presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump blamed the Biden administration for inflation and promised to lower prices for consumers. The outbreak of bird flu will make that commitment even more difficult. This week, the United Egg Producers, the lobbying arm for egg producers, called on Congress and the new Trump administration to move quickly to create a national strategy to combat bird flu, including more funding for rapid testing at the state and federal levels and Development of potential. Vaccination
At his confirmation hearing Thursday, Brooke Rollins, who is president Trump’s nominee for agriculture secretary, told senators that among his top priorities was to “immediately and comprehensively deal with animal disease outbreaks,” though he did not provide details.
For egg farms, help to find a solution to the virus can’t come soon enough.
Tracy and Jason Ramsdell, who have chicken operations in rural South Dakota and California, have had bird flu outbreaks, most recently in December, which have resulted in the loss of 40,000 pasture-raised, free-range chickens in California. Although the federal government pays compensation for the birds that must be destroyed, Ms Ramsdell said the farm would still face “thousands of thousands” of dollars in losses and would take at least six months to recover and resume business with chickens.
“Anybody in the animal industry should be nervous right now,” Ms Ramsdell said. “Until we collectively come together and get some solid, concrete answers about what’s going on, I don’t think it’s going to stop.”
Federal health officials are closely monitoring the latest strain of avian influenza, which is deadly to chickens and has also been found in cattle, which usually recover from the flu with treatment.
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Said that risk Humans have less, and pasteurized milk products are safe to consume. There are also eggs Safe to eatAs long as they are cooked to the proper temperature to kill bacteria and viruses, they are consumed Higher climbs are likely and gaps on store shelves could increase, analysts warned.
“It may take six months for the market to stabilize,” said Brian Moscogyuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, a California-based wholesaler. “We need to see the outbreak of avian influenza stopped. We need a time when farms are not affected and can recover their chickens and we need to start reducing demand.”
In addition to infecting laying hens, the virus has also hit farms that raise chicks to sell as laying eggs. Farms that have killed chickens infected with the virus will have to wait longer to resume operations.
“If you were to place an order for baby chicks today, you won’t get them until April or October 2026,” Ms Rispoli said.
All types of poultry are susceptible to the H5N1 virus. Cases have been reported at operations in Turkey, and food industry analysts are now closely monitoring the first reports of outbreaks in broiler chickens, which are bred for meat production, in Georgia, the nation’s largest poultry-producing state.
The outbreak was confirmed at two farms near each other in north Georgia in mid-January, leading to the disposal of about 175,000 chickens, said Matthew Agvant, director of communications for the Georgia Department of Agriculture.
But to prevent the spread, the state ordered a 6.2-mile quarantine zone around the two farms, limiting the ability of another 120 poultry farms within that zone to deliver chickens to processors without special approval, Mr. Agvent said.
Egg producers are stepping up their calls for lawmakers to move quickly to develop and administer vaccines for the nation’s chicken and poultry populations.
But even a vaccine cannot eradicate it Continued outbreaks, said Iowa State University economics professor Chad Hart. In addition to the uncertain cost of vaccinating more than 300 million birds, avian influenza is constantly changing, meaning a vaccine could miss a new strain that is developing. Indeed, in early January, the US Department of Agriculture said that none of the vaccines available in the market match the current virulent strains found in recent outbreaks.
And vaccinating all birds in the United States could hurt poultry exports, Mr. Hart said. The United States exports about $5.5 billion in chicken meat each year.
“Different countries have different standards that they use when it comes to vaccinations,” Mr Hart said. “Vaccines have been used as a reason to stop imports and exports from various countries over the past year.”
